The association of alcohol use and heavy drinking with subsequent handgun carrying among youth from rural areas.

PURPOSE: Alcohol use and handgun carrying are more prevalent among youth in rural than urban areas and their association may be stronger among rural adolescents. Alcohol use may be modifiable with implications for reducing handgun carrying and firearm-related harm. We examined the association between lagged alcohol use and subsequent handgun carrying in rural areas and examined variation in the association by developmental stages, hypothesizing that it would be stronger among adolescents than youth adults. METHODS: We used a longitudinal sample of 2,002 adolescents from ages 12 to 26 growing up in 12 rural communities in 7 states with surveys collected from 2004 to 2019. We estimated the association of lagged past-month alcohol use on handgun carrying in the subsequent 12 months using population-average generalized estimating equations with logistic regression on multiply imputed data. FINDINGS: During adolescence (ages 12-18), those who drank heavily had 1.43 times the odds (95% CI = [1.01, 2.03]) of subsequent handgun carrying compared to those who did not drink alcohol, and those who consumed alcohol but did not drink heavily had 1.30 times the odds of subsequent handgun carrying compared to those who did not drink (95% CI = [0.98, 1.71]). During young adulthood (ages 19-26), associations of alcohol use (OR = 1.28; 95% CI = [0.94, 1.63]) and heavy drinking (OR = 1.38; 95% CI = [1.08, 1.68]) were similar to adolescence. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use and subsequent handgun carrying were positively associated during adolescence and young adulthood among individuals who grew up in rural areas, similar to findings in urban areas. Reducing alcohol use may be an important strategy to prevent handgun carrying and firearm-related harm among young people in rural areas.

Alcohol-Tolerant Workplace Environments Are a Risk Factor for Young Adult Alcohol Misuse on and off the Job in Australia and the United States.

The workplace has been understudied as a setting for the prevention of young adult alcohol misuse. This study examined if alcohol-tolerant workplace environments are associated with greater risk for alcohol use and misuse on and off the job among young adults. Data were collected in 2014 from state-representative, sex-balanced samples (51% female) of 25-year-olds in Washington, U.S. (n = 751) and Victoria, Australia (n = 777). Logistic regressions indicated that availability of alcohol at work, absence of a written alcohol policy, and alcohol-tolerant workplace norms and attitudes were independently associated with a 1.5 to 3 times greater odds of on-the-job alcohol use or impairment. Alcohol-tolerant workplace norms were associated also with greater odds of high-risk drinking generally, independent of on-the-job alcohol use or impairment. Associations were mostly similar in Washington and Victoria, although young adults in Victoria perceived their workplaces to be more alcohol-tolerant and were more likely to use alcohol or be impaired at work and to misuse alcohol generally than young adults in Washington. Cross-nationally, workplace interventions that restrict the availability of alcohol, ban alcohol at work, and reduce alcohol-tolerant norms have the potential to prevent and reduce young adults' alcohol use and misuse on and off the job.

Tobacco Use Patterns From Adolescence to Young Adulthood Among Latinx Youth From Rural Communities.

PURPOSE: To examine patterns in adolescent and young adult tobacco use, comparing Latinx foreign-born children and children of foreign-born parents (i.e., children of immigrants(COI)) to Latinx US-born children of US-born parents (i.e., children of nonimmigrants,(CONI)) and to CONI White youth who grew up in small and rural towns. METHODS: Data were from youth who lived in control communities that participated in a community-randomized trial of the Communities That Care prevention system. We compared Latinx CONI (n = 154) with Latinx COI (n = 316) and with non-Latinx White CONI (n = 918). We examined tobacco use in adolescence (any adolescent use, early onset, and chronic use) and young adulthood (any past-year tobacco use, any daily smoking, any nicotine dependence symptoms) with mixed-effects logistic regressions. RESULTS: In adolescence, Latinx CONI had a higher prevalence of any and chronic tobacco use relative to Latinx COI, and of any and early onset tobacco use relative to non-Latinx White CONI. In young adulthood, Latinx CONI were more likely to report tobacco use in the past year, any symptoms of nicotine dependence, and daily smoking relative to Latinx COI; and more likely to report daily smoking relative to non-Latinx White CONI. Generation differences in young adult tobacco use were explained by chronic tobacco use in adolescence. DISCUSSION: The study suggests targeting chronic tobacco use in adolescence to prevent disparities in tobacco outcomes among Latinx young adults from rural communities.

Effect of the Communities That Care Prevention System on Adolescent Handgun Carrying: A Cluster-Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: There is little information on upstream community-based interventions that reduce the prevalence of handgun carrying among adolescents, especially those growing up in rural areas. Objective: To test whether Communities That Care (CTC), a community-based prevention system focusing on risk and protective factors for behavioral problems early in life, reduces handgun carrying prevalence among adolescents growing up in rural areas. Design, Setting, and Participants: Community-randomized trial of 24 small towns in 7 states assigned randomly to the CTC or control group with outcomes assessed from 2003 to 2011. Participants were youths attending public schools in grade 5 who received consent from their parents to participate (77% of the eligible population) and were repeatedly surveyed through grade 12 with 92% retention. Analyses were conducted from June to November 2022. Interventions: A coalition of community stakeholders received training and technical assistance to install CTC, used local epidemiologic data to identify elevated risk factors and low protective factors for adolescent behavioral problems, and implemented tested preventive interventions for youth, their families, and schools. Main Outcomes and Measures: Handgun carrying (never vs at least once) operationalized in 2 ways: (1) prevalence of past-year handgun carrying, and (2) cumulative prevalence of handgun carrying from grade 6 through grade 12. Results: Overall, the 4407 study participants' mean (SD) age was 12 (.4) years in both CTC (2405 participants) and control (2002 participants) communities in grade 6; about one-half of participants in each group were female (1220 [50.7 %] in the CTC group and 962 [48.1%] in the control group). From grade 6 through grade 12, 15.5% of participants in CTC communities and 20.7% of those in control communities reported carrying a handgun at least once. Youths in CTC communities were significantly less likely to report handgun carrying at a given grade than those in control communities (odds ratio [OR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.65-0.82). The most pronounced effects were observed in grade 7 (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.42-0.99), grade 8 (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.41-0.74), and grade 9 (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.39-0.91). Cumulatively from grade 6 through grade 12, youths in CTC communities were significantly less likely to report handgun carrying at least once than those in control communities (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70-0.84). Overall, CTC reduced the prevalence of past-year handgun carrying by 27% at a given grade and by 24% cumulatively through grade 12. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, CTC reduced the prevalence of adolescent handgun carrying in participating communities. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01088542.

Community Engagement Alliance (CEAL) Against COVID-19 Disparities: Academic-community partnership to support workforce capacity building among Arizona community health workers.

The COVID-19 pandemic has both highlighted and worsened existing health inequities among communities of color and structurally vulnerable populations. Community Health Workers, inclusive of Community Health Representatives (CHW/Rs) have entered the spotlight as essential to COVID-19 prevention and control. To learn about community experiences and perspectives related to COVID-19 and inform CHW/R workforce capacity building efforts, a series of focus groups were conducted with CHW/Rs throughout Arizona at two time points in 2021. Throughout the data collection and analysis process, researchers and community partners engaged in ongoing and open dialogue about what CHW/Rs on the ground were reporting as priority community concerns, needs, and challenges. Thus, CHW/Rs informed the development of culturally and linguistically relevant health education messages, materials, and training for CHW/Rs. In this community case study, we detail the efforts of partnership between a statewide CHW professional association and an academic research team that facilitated rapid decision-making and knowledge sharing to create community-grounded tools and resources supportive of CHW/R workforce capacity building in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bullying and physical violence and their association with handgun carrying among youth growing up in rural areas.

OBJECTIVES: This study builds on prior research showing a strong relationship between handgun carrying and delinquent behaviors among urban youth by examining the association between handgun carrying trajectories and various types of violence in a rural sample. METHODS: This study uses data from a longitudinal cohort study of 2002 public school students in the United States from 12 rural communities across 7 states from ages 12-26 (2005-2019). We used logistic regressions to assess associations of various bullying and physical violence behaviors with latent trajectories of handgun carrying from adolescence through young adulthood. RESULTS: Compared to youth with very low probabilities of carrying a handgun in adolescence and young adulthood, trajectories with high probabilities of handgun carrying during adolescence or young adulthood were associated with greater odds of using bullying (odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 1.9 to 11.2) and higher odds of using physical violence during adolescence (ORs ranging from 1.5 to 15.9) and young adulthood (ORs ranging from 1.9 to 4.7). These trajectories with higher probabilities of handgun carrying were also associated with greater odds of experiencing physical violence like parental physical abuse and intimate partner violence, but not bullying. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION: Experiencing and using bullying and physical violence were associated with specific patterns of handgun carrying among youth growing up in rural areas. Handgun carrying could be an important focus of violence prevention programs among those youth.

School Handgun Carrying Among Youth Growing Up in Rural Communities.

PURPOSE: To characterize school handgun carrying and violence risk factors among rural youth. METHODS: Using a sample of rural youth (n = 1995), we quantified the proportion who carried a handgun to school, carried but not to school, and did not carry across grades 7-12 and endorsed risk factors for violence in individual, peer, school, and community domains. RESULTS: Overall, 3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2%-4%) of youth ever carried to school; 15% (95% CI: 14%-16%) carried but not to school; and 82% (95% CI: 80%-84%) never carried. Violence risk factors (e.g., attacking someone) were more commonly endorsed by youth who carried to school (84%; 95% CI: 73%-95%) than those who carried but not to school (51%; 95% CI: 44%-58%) and did not carry (23%; 95% CI: 20%-26%). DISCUSSION: Carrying a handgun to school in rural areas is not common; however, it is associated with risk factors for violence. Understanding violence risk factors among youth who carry handguns to school could inform violence prevention programs in rural areas.

Narratives from African American/Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Hispanic/Latinx community members in Arizona to enhance COVID-19 vaccine and vaccination uptake.

The state of Arizona has experienced one of the highest novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positivity test rates in the United States with disproportionally higher case rates and deaths among African-American/Black (AA/B), American Indian/Alaska Native (Native), and Hispanic/Latinx (HLX) individuals. To reduce disparities and promote health equity, researchers from Arizona State University, Mayo Clinic in Arizona, Northern Arizona University, and the University of Arizona formed a partnership with community organizations to conduct state-wide community-engaged research and outreach. This report describes results from 34 virtually-held focus groups and supplemental survey responses conducted with 153 AA/B, HLX, and Native community members across Arizona to understand factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and confidence. Focus groups revealed common themes of vaccine hesitancy stemming from past experiences of research abuses (e.g., Tuskegee syphilis experiment) as well as group-specific factors. Across all focus groups, participants strongly recommended the use of brief, narrative vaccination testimonials from local officials, community members, and faith leaders to increase trust in science, vaccine confidence and to promote uptake.

Substance-Specific Risk Factors among Young Adults: Potential Prevention Targets across Cannabis-Permissive Environments.

PURPOSE: This study examined levels of substance-specific risk factors such as perception of harm from substance use among young adults in a range of cannabis-permissive environments. The main objective was to inform future preventive interventions aimed at reducing cannabis use in the context of increasingly permissive environments. METHODS: Data came from the Community Youth Development Study (CYDS) collected in 2016 when participants were about 23 years old (n = 1,722 participants residing in 46 U.S. states). Young adults self-reported their perceptions about the harms related to cannabis, alcohol, and cigarette use; attitudes about and ease of access to cannabis and other substances; and perceived wrongfulness and social acceptability of cannabis, alcohol, and cigarette use and of selling of cannabis and other illegal drugs. RESULTS: Young adults in more permissive cannabis contexts reported higher levels of all cannabis-specific risk factors (e.g., greater access to and more favorable attitudes about cannabis use), except for perception of harm from regular cannabis use. However, permissiveness of the cannabis environment was not associated with heightened levels of risk factors for other substance use (such as alcohol, cigarettes, and opioids). CONCLUSIONS: Future preventive interventions for young adults living in more permissive cannabis contexts may need to focus on cannabis-specific risk factors in particular and go beyond considerations of harm from regular use. Future studies should replicate these findings with other samples.

Neighborhood Conditions and Type 2 Diabetes Risk among Latino Adolescents with Obesity in Phoenix.

Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) has reached epidemic levels among the pediatric population. Furthermore, disparities in T2D among youth are distributed in a manner that reflects the social inequality between population sub-groups. Here, we investigated the neighborhood determinants of T2D risk among a sample of Latino adolescents with obesity residing in Phoenix, Arizona (n = 133). In doing so we linked together four separate contextual data sources: the American Community Survey, the United States Department of Agriculture Food Access Research Atlas, the Arizona Healthy Community Map, and the National Neighborhood Data Archive to systematically analyze how and which neighborhood characteristics were associated with T2D risk factors as measured by fasting and 2-h glucose following a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. Using linear regression models with and without individual/household covariates, we investigated how twenty-two housing and transportation sociodemographic and built and food environment characteristics were independently and jointly associated with T2D risk. The main finding from these analyses was the strong association between the density of fast food restaurants and 2-h glucose values (b = 2.42, p < 0.01). This association was independent of individual, household, and other neighborhood characteristics. Our results contribute to an increasingly robust literature demonstrating the deleterious influence of the neighborhood food environment, especially fast food, for T2D risk among Latino youth.

Trajectories of Handgun Carrying in Rural Communities From Early Adolescence to Young Adulthood.

Importance: Characterizing patterns of handgun carrying among adolescents and young adults can inform programs to reduce firearm-related harm. Longitudinal patterns of handgun carrying among rural adolescents have not been identified. Objectives: To assess specific points of intervention by characterizing patterns of handgun carrying by youths in rural communities from early adolescence to young adulthood and to quantify how age at initiation, duration, and frequency of carrying differ across identified patterns. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study uses the control group of the community-randomized trial of the Communities That Care prevention system, conducted among public school students in 12 rural communities across 7 states. Participants self-reported their handgun carrying at 10 data collection points from 12 to 26 years of age (2005-2019). Data were analyzed from January to July 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Handgun carrying in the past 12 months. Latent class growth analysis was used to estimate handgun carrying trajectories. Results: In this longitudinal rural sample of 2002 students, 1040 (51.9%) were male; 532 (26.6%) were Hispanic, Latino, Latina, or Latinx; 1310 (65.4%) were White; and the highest level of educational attainment of either parent was a high school degree or less for 649 students (32.4%). The prevalence of handgun carrying in the last 12 months ranged from 5.3% (95 of 1795) to 7.4% (146 of 1969) in adolescence and increased during the mid-20s (range, 8.9% [154 of 1722] to 10.9% [185 of 1704] from 23 to 26 years of age). Among the participants who reported handgun carrying at least once between 12 and 26 years of age (n = 601 [30.0%]), 320 (53.2%) reported carrying a handgun in only 1 wave. Latent class growth analysis indicated 6 longitudinal trajectories: never or low probability of carrying (1590 [79.4%]), emerging adulthood carrying (166 [8.3%]), steadily increasing carrying (163 [8.1%]), adolescent carrying (53 [2.6%]), declining carrying (24 [1.2%]), and high probability and persistent carrying (6 [0.3%]). The earliest mean (SD) age at initiation of handgun carrying occurred in both the adolescent and declining carrying groups at the ages of 12.6 (0.9) and 12.5 (0.7) years, respectively. More than 20% of some groups (emerging adulthood [age 26 years: 49 of 154 (31.8%)], steadily increasing [age 26 years: 37 of 131 (28.2%)], declining [age 13 years: 7 of 23 (30.4%)], and high probability and persistent carrying [age 15 years: 3 of 6 (50.0%)]) reported carrying 40 times or more in the past year by the age of 26 years. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found distinct patterns of handgun carrying from adolescence to young adulthood in rural settings. Findings suggest that promoting handgun safety in rural areas should start early. Potential high-risk trajectories, including carrying at high frequencies, should be the focus of future work to explore the antecedents and consequences of handgun carrying in rural areas.

Young adult opioid misuse indicates a general tendency toward substance use and is strongly predicted by general substance use risk.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether young adult opioid misuse reflects a general tendency toward substance use and is influenced by general substance use risk or whether it is a different phenomenon from other drug use. METHODS: At ages 23 (2016) and 26 (2019), a panel of young adults (n = 3794 to 3833) in the United States self-reported their past-month substance use (opioid misuse, heavy drinking, cigarettes, cannabis) and substance-specific risk factors (perceptions of harm; approval of use; and use of each substance by friends and romantic partners). Structural equation models examined non-opioid and opioid-specific associations between latent risk and substance use factors. RESULTS: Opioid misuse and opioid-specific risk factors shared significant variance with latent substance use and latent substance use risk, respectively, which were strongly associated. A statistically significant residual correlation between opioid-specific risk and opioid misuse remained. CONCLUSION: Young adult opioid misuse reflects a general tendency toward substance use and is strongly predicted by risk for substance use. Opioid-specific risk factors play only a small independent role. Existing evidence-based substance use interventions may be effective in preventing opioid misuse among young adults.

Simultaneous use of marijuana and alcohol: Potential prevention targets among young adults who use alcohol.

Simultaneous alcohol and marijuana use (SAM) such that their effects overlap has emerged as a behavior that is riskier than using either substance separately. It has been associated with high-risk binge drinking and driving while intoxicated during young adulthood, and it has been demonstrated to cause greater physical and mental impairment than use of alcohol or marijuana separately. To identify intervention and prevention targets specific to SAM, we examined the relationships between alcohol- and marijuana-specific beliefs and attitudes (risk factors) and self-reported SAM compared to non-simultaneous co-use (CAM) and alcohol use only in the past 30 days in a sample of young adults (n = 1,023, mean age = 23.17; SD = 0.43). Of those who reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days, 20.7% reported SAM, 12.6% reported CAM, and 66.6% reported using only alcohol. Results from multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that some marijuana-specific risk factors (e.g., belief that it is not at all wrong for someone their age to use marijuana) differentiated SAM or CAM from alcohol use only, but alcohol-specific risk factors generally did not. However, the perceptions that parents approved of their using marijuana or frequently drinking heavily were associated with a greater likelihood of SAM compared to CAM (OR ranged from 2.25 to 3.53). Findings point to the salience of individuals' attitudes and beliefs around marijuana use and their perception of parental approval of heavy drinking and marijuana use as potential targets for prevention programs targeting risk reduction among young adults.

Parent-focused prevention of adolescent health risk behavior: Study protocol for a multisite cluster-randomized trial implemented in pediatric primary care.

Evidence-based parenting interventions play a crucial role in the sustained reduction of adolescent behavioral health concerns. Guiding Good Choices (GGC) is a 5-session universal anticipatory guidance curriculum for parents of early adolescents that has been shown to reduce substance use, depression symptoms, and delinquent behavior. Although prior research has demonstrated the effectiveness of evidence-based parenting interventions at achieving sustained reductions in adolescent behavioral health concerns, public health impact has been limited by low rates of uptake in community and agency settings. Pediatric primary care is an ideal setting for implementing and scaling parent-focused prevention programs as these settings have a broad reach, and prevention programs implemented within them have the potential to achieve population-level impact. The current investigation, Guiding Good Choices for Health (GGC4H), tests the feasibility and effectiveness of implementing GGC in 3 geographically and socioeconomically diverse large integrated healthcare systems. This pragmatic, cluster randomized clinical trial will compare GGC parenting intervention to usual pediatric primary care practice, and will include approximately 3750 adolescents; n = 1875 GGC intervention and n = 1875 usual care. The study team hypothesizes that adolescents whose parents are randomized into the GGC intervention arm will show reductions in substance use initiation, the study's primary outcomes, and other secondary (e.g., depression symptoms, substance use prevalence) and exploratory outcomes (e.g., health services utilization, anxiety symptoms). The investigative team anticipates that the implementation of GGC within pediatric primary care clinics will successfully fill an unmet need for effective preventive parenting interventions. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.govNCT04040153.

Applying the Social Development Model in Middle Childhood to Promote Healthy Development: Effects From Primary School Through the 30s and Across Generations.

PURPOSE: This paper describes the origins and application of a theory, the social development model (SDM), that seeks to explain causal processes that lead to the development of prosocial and problem behaviors. The SDM was used to guide the development of a multicomponent intervention in middle childhood called Raising Healthy Children (RHC) that seeks to promote prosocial development and prevent problem behaviors. This paper reviews and integrates the tests of the SDM and the impact of RHC. While the original results of both model and intervention tests have been published elsewhere, this paper provides a comprehensive review of these tests. As such this integrative paper provides one of the few examples of the power of theory-driven developmental preventive intervention to understand impact across generations and the power of embedding controlled tests of preventive intervention within longitudinal studies to understand causal mechanisms. METHODS: Application of the SDM in the RHC intervention was tested in a quasi-experimental trial nested in the Seattle Social Development Project (SSDP). SSDP is a longitudinal study of 808 students who attended 18 public schools in Seattle, WA, and whose parents consented for their participation in longitudinal research when they were in Grade 5 (77% of the eligible population in participating schools). Students assented at each survey administration and consented to longitudinal follow-up when they turned 18. Panel subjects were followed and surveyed 15 times from Grade 5 through age 39, with most completion rates above 90%. RESULTS: We describe effects of the full multicomponent RHC intervention delivered in Grades 1 through 6 by comparing outcomes of those children assigned to the full RHC intervention condition to controls from middle childhood through age 39. We also report the effects of the full RHC intervention on the firstborn children of participants compared with the firstborn children of controls. CONCLUSIONS: We discuss use of the theory to guide development and testing of preventive interventions and the utility of nesting intervention tests within longitudinal studies for testing both theory and interventions.

Long-term Impacts and Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Communities That Care Prevention System at Age 23, 12 Years After Baseline.

This study estimated sustained impacts and long-term benefits and costs of the Communities That Care (CTC) prevention system, implemented and evaluated in a longitudinal cluster-randomized trial involving 24 communities in seven states. Analyses utilized reports from a longitudinal panel of 4407 participants, followed since the study's baseline in grade 5, with most recent follow-up 12 years later at age 23. Impacts on lifetime abstinence from primary outcomes of substance use and antisocial behavior were estimated using generalized linear mixed Poisson regression analysis, adjusted for individual and community-level covariates. Possible cascading effects on 4-year college completion, major depressive disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder through age 23 were evaluated as secondary outcomes. CTC had a statistically significant global effect on primary outcomes and also on combined primary and secondary outcomes. Among primary outcomes, point estimates suggested absolute improvements in lifetime abstinence of 3.5 to 6.1% in the intervention arm and relative improvements of 13 to 55%; 95% confidence intervals revealed some uncertainty in estimates. Among secondary outcomes, 4-year college completion was 1.9% greater among young adults from intervention communities, a 20% relative improvement. Mental health outcomes were approximately the same across trial arms. Although CTC had small sustained effects through age 23, benefit-cost analyses indicated CTC was reliably cost beneficial, with a net present value of $7152 (95% credible interval: $1253 to $15,268) per participant from primary impacts and $17,919 ($306 to $39,186) when secondary impacts were also included. It remained cost beneficial even when impacts were adjusted downward due to the involvement of CTC's developer in the trial. Findings suggest that broader dissemination of CTC could improve public health and individual lives in the long term and generate positive net benefits to society.

Adult Social Environments and the Use of Combustible and Electronic Cigarettes: Opportunities for Reducing Smoking in the 30s.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing cigarette use is a major public health goal in the United States. Questions remain, however, about the potential for the social environment in the adult years-particularly in the 30s and beyond-to influence cigarette use. This study tested pathways hypothesized by the social development model to understand the extent to which social environmental factors at age 33 (eg, involvement with smokers or with physically active people) contribute to changes in cigarette use from age 30 to age 39. Both combustible and electronic cigarette use were investigated. METHODS: Data were from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal study of 808 diverse participants with high retention. Self-reports assessed social developmental constructs, combustible and electronic cigarette use, and demographic measures across survey waves. RESULTS: At age 30, 32% of the sample reported past-month cigarette use. Using structural equation modeling, results showed high stability in cigarette use from age 30 to 39. After accounting for this stability, cigarette-using social environments at age 33 predicted personal beliefs or norms about smoking (eg, acceptability and social costs), which in turn predicted combustible cigarette use at age 39. Cigarette-using environments, however, directly predicted electronic cigarette use at age 39, with no significant role for beliefs about smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette use was highly stable across the 30s, but social environmental factors provided significant partial mediation of this stability. Pathways were different for combustible and electronic cigarette use, however, with personal smoking norms playing an important role for the former but not the latter. IMPLICATIONS: This study addresses the need for longitudinal investigation of social mechanisms and cigarette use in the 30s. Findings reinforce efforts to prevent the uptake of cigarettes prior to the 30s because, once started, smoking is highly stable. But social environmental factors remain viable intervention targets in the 30s to disrupt this stability. Addressing personal norms about smoking's acceptability and social costs is likely a promising approach for combustible cigarette use. Electronic cigarettes, however, present a new challenge in that many perceived social costs of cigarette use do not readily translate to this relatively recent technology.

E-cigarette use is associated with subsequent cigarette use among young adult non-smokers, over and above a range of antecedent risk factors: a propensity score analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is a public health concern that the use of e-cigarettes among non-smoking young adults could be associated with transition to combustible cigarette use. The current study is a quasi-experimental test of the relationship between e-cigarette use and subsequent combustible cigarette use among young adult non-smokers, accounting for a wide range of common risk factors. DESIGN: Logistic regression was used to predict combustible cigarette use on three or more occasions at age 23 years based on age 21 e-cigarette use. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to account for confounding variables. SETTING: Data were drawn from the Community Youth Development Study (CYDS), a cohort study of youth recruited in 2003 in 24 rural communities in seven US. states PARTICIPANTS: Youth in the CYDS study (n = 4407) were surveyed annually from ages 11 to 16, and at ages 18, 19, 21 and 23 years (in 2016). The sample was gender balanced (50% female) and ethnically diverse (20% Hispanic, 64% white, 3% black and 12% other race or ethnicity). The current study was limited to participants who had never used combustible cigarettes by age 21 (n = 1825). MEASUREMENTS: Age 21 use of e-cigarettes and age 23 use of combustible cigarettes (three or more occasions) were included in the regression analysis. Age 11-19 measures of 22 common predictors of both e-cigarette and combustible cigarette use (e.g. pro-cigarette attitudes, peer smoking, family monitoring) were used to create IPWs. FINDINGS: After applying IPW, e-cigarette use at age 21 was associated with a twofold increase in odds of combustible cigarette use on three or more occasions 2 years later (odds ratio = 2.16, confidence interval 1.23, 3.79). CONCLUSIONS: Among previously never-smoking US young adults, e-cigarette use appears to be strongly associated with subsequent combustible cigarette smoking, over and above measured preexisting risk factors.

Marijuana Legalization and Youth Marijuana, Alcohol, and Cigarette Use and Norms.

INTRODUCTION: Rates of adolescent substance use have decreased in recent years. Knowing whether nonmedical marijuana legalization for adults is linked to increases or slows desirable decreases in marijuana and other drug use or pro-marijuana attitudes among teens is of critical interest to inform policy and promote public health. This study tests whether nonmedical marijuana legalization predicts a higher likelihood of teen marijuana, alcohol, or cigarette use or lower perceived harm from marijuana use in a longitudinal sample of youth aged 10-20 years. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project-The Intergenerational Project, an accelerated longitudinal study of youth followed both before (2002-2011) and after nonmedical marijuana legalization (2015-2018). Analyses included 281 youth surveyed up to 10 times and living in a state with nonmedical marijuana legalization between 2015 and 2018 (51% female; 33% white, 17% African American, 10% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 40% mixed race or other). RESULTS: Multilevel modeling in 2019 showed that nonmedical marijuana legalization predicted a higher likelihood of self-reported past-year marijuana (AOR=6.85, p=0.001) and alcohol use (AOR 3.38, p=0.034) among youth when controlling birth cohort, sex, race, and parent education. Nonmedical marijuana legalization was not significantly related to past-year cigarette use (AOR=2.43, p=0.279) or low perceived harm from marijuana use (AOR=1.50, p=0.236) across youth aged 10-20 years. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to consider recent broad declines in youth substance use when evaluating the impact of nonmedical marijuana legalization. States that legalize nonmedical marijuana for adults should increase resources for the prevention of underage marijuana and alcohol use.